The impact of global warming on the demographics of India
Louise Burfitt- Dons, 2008

“Global warming may be the ultimate issue that unites us all”

Global warming is a progressive increase in the average temperature of the earth’s and ocean’s surface on the back of a rise in concentrations of green house gases, thereby hampering the global climate pattern. Green house gases like carbon dioxide, methane, etc., responsible for trapping the infra red rays of the sun and heating up the atmosphere, are constantly being released in the name of economic development.

In India, economic development along with a growing population has caused environmental degradation through urbanization, industrialization, intensification of agriculture and de-forestation. For India, it has been estimated that the population size will exceed 1.26 billion in 2016, making it the most populous country in the world. Today, India boasts of accommodating 18% of the world’s population on just 2.4% of the total land mass, thereby putting pressures on the available natural resources. Water shortages, soil exhaustion and erosion, de-forestation, air and water pollution are just a few. The consequence of which is global warming, posing a threat to sustainable development.

In Bangladesh, climate disturbances are already seen through increased temperature, and increased sea levels, causing cross boundary river flows and resulting in drainage congestion. Experts state, that if the climate change disruption continues, Bangladesh may lose its coastal land and eventually get sub merged, resulting in an influx of refugees into Meghalaya, which already has few natural resources to depend upon.

The effects of global warming are also visible on the Indian sub-continent in the form of submergence of low lying islands, coastal islands and the melting of glaciers in Indian Himalayas, posing a threat to the important Indian and south Asian rivers. Glaciers have retreated and raised the sea levels due to the elevated carbon levels. The rate at which the India’s largest glacier, Gangotri melts is 28.1 meters per year. Even the average yearly retreat of Siachen glacier has been 52 meters from 1990 to 2001.

In fact, a study by the Indira Gandhi institute of research development states, that if global temperatures rise by 2 degrees or displace the current sea level by another meter, then it would result in the submergence of parts of Mumbai, Kolkata and Chennai.

Ongoing rise in sea levels has submerged several low lying islands in the Sunderbans, displacing not just thousands of people but also making the survival of royal bengal tigers difficult. Rising sea levels are eroding the coasts, resulting in the erosion of vegetation. In addition to this, reduced forest cover, on account of increasing population in the area, is also threatening the lives of the endangered big cats.

Apart from wildlife, marine life has also come under the traps of global warming. Rising ocean temperatures are creating survival problems for one-celled plants, phytoplankton and algae, which usually thrive in cooler regions of the ocean and aid in photosynthesis. They prepare food by removing carbon dioxide and splitting it into organic carbon and oxygen for almost every other organism in the eco-system. However, warmer temperatures are making algae vanish and affecting the food source for thousands of marine lives. Along with this, high carbon concentrations have made oceans acidic and destroyed phytoplankton in large numbers, reducing the uptake of green house gases. In fact, the “bleaching effect”, killing 70% of corals in reef ecosystems around Lakshadweep and Andaman islands, was an outcome of changed ocean chemistry. It involved the release of algae by corals, causing discoloration in process. As per World wildlife fund, an absolute disappearance of coral reefs would eradicate an entire ecological habitat of fish.

Weather extremities, in the form of frequent cyclonic depression in oceans, unpredictable monsoon rains, frequent draughts and floods have adversely affected the agricultural output of the nation as well. Seasonal shifts severely impacted the soil quality and production levels of several crops. For instance, the rice production was 100 million tones, lower than expected, because of the draught in year 2008. Further, a shortfall in monsoon, in 2009, resulted in reduced paddy coverage area by about 5.7 million hectares, reducing the production amount by another 10 million tonnes. Sugar production too declined from 23.2 million tonnes in 2008 to 15 million tonnes in 2009 as against the domestic requirement of 22-23 million tonnes.

Lower production levels hampered the price structure of basic food grains such as rice, sugar, pulses, wheat etc. A shortage in food grain supplies, on the back of climate disruptions and an ever increasing population size drove the food price levels to an all time high. For instance, sugar, in November 2009, was priced at Rs. 36 per kg, up from the price of Rs.27 per kg in August, 2009. In addition to high prices owing to poor agricultural output, disproportionate distribution of water and food supply, inefficient irrigation systems and agricultural practices have added to the woes of Indian farmers. In an effort to bring an end to their miseries, many Indian farmers have committed suicides.

Hence, global warming has several negative implications on human health, particularly on low-income nations like India. Climate change has contributed to many early deaths and afflicted the burden of diseases on many. These also include the increased number of deaths occurring as a result of malnutrition, weather extremities like heat waves, floods, cyclones and diseases thereafter born from them like diarrhea, malaria, heat and cold deaths, thereby affecting the demographics of the nation.

However, a few steps by the Indian government, in alignment with the rest of the nations can help overcome the drastic demographic changes brought about by global warming. Climate proofing of public infrastructure investments, food security, water resources and policies towards energy efficiency by the government can combat global warming. Global action will require building trust between developed and developing nations so that solutions include fair burden sharing measures to realize sustainable patterns of consumption and production.

References
1) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming
2) http://knowledge.allianz.com/en/globalissues/climate_change/
3) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_global_warming
4) http://www.neoncarrot.co.uk/h_aboutindia/about_india_index.html

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